Week 10 NFL Picks vs. Spread
Yeah, yeah – no picks against the spread or posts of any nature last week. It was our “bye” week. Sorry! If you’re incredibly eager to read our stuff, I’ll direct you to myBuffalo.com, where you can read Ben K.’s local college hockey live-blogs (game recaps here) and Ben T.’s local college basketball live-blogs (and his insightful social commentaries/event previews!). We promise to do better in terms of re-posting that content here (seriously).
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I caught up with Buffalo News’ writer Bob DiCesare before the UB – Navy game yesterday and congratulated him on his 10-2-1 record against the spread last week. I asked him for a little advice – he said that he spends about 10 minutes total on his picks and credited “luck” for his success.
@Buffalo favored 2 points over Detroit: It’s difficult to say whether Matthew Stafford is unlucky or injury prone, but regardless, he’s out for the season with his second major shoulder injury. In his stead, Shaun Hill – healthy after a broken forearm three+ weeks ago – will start for the remainder of the season. He’s 1-4 as a starter in 2010. Winless Buffalo will struggle to contain Calvin Johnson, and Jahvid Best, like Jamaal Charles two weeks ago, should find plenty of running room outside the tackles. The Brandon Pettigrew/Tony Scheffler combination will be murderous on Donte Whitner. Detroit, 27-24. (Edit: Buffalo 14-12, Detroit wins vs. spread – WIN).
@Indianapolis favored 7 over Cincinnati: The Bengals have lost five straight, while Indy is tied atop the AFC South at 5-3. Cincinnati’s middling defense may be the culprit, as the unit doesn’t fall within in the NFL’s top 17 in any major category. Peyton Manning has never lost against the Bengals in six starts. Indianapolis, 23-17 (Cincy wins vs. Spread.) (Edit: Indy wins 23-17, NICE WIN).
@Jacksonville favored 1.5 over Houston: Both teams are truly enigmatic – Houston (loss to Dallas, win over Indy) and Jacksonville (win over Indy, bad losses to KC & Ten) are tied at the bottom of the AFC South but are only one game back of front-runners Tennessee and Indy. Matt Schaub should have his way with the Jags’ defense sans Aaron Kampman, but Houston’s defense is equally as vulnerable to big games from MJD and David Garrard. 37-34 Houston. (Edit: LOSS, Jacksonville 31-24).
Tennessee favored 1 @Miami: In what I view as a curious move, Chad Pennington will start today for the ‘Fins in place of Chad Henne. The senior Chad hasn’t started since the third game of 2009, when his 5.6 YPA left a lot to be desired. Unsurprisingly, Miami’s game-plan will revolve around Ronnie and Ricky, while Tennessee just decided that Kerry Collins will open under center. Expect a run-heavy attack from both teams. Tennessee 20-16. (Edit: LOSS, Miami 29-17).
Minnesota favored 1 @Chicago: The Bears stand two games up on Minnesota, but Jared Allen is licking his lips for a chance to rush Jay Cutler. Chicago’s offensive line is porous, to say the least (Cutler’s been sacked 28 times in 7 starts). I don’t see how the Bears will be able to move the football, and Brett Favre should build off a decent start vs. Arizona (446 yards passing, 2 TDs.) Sidney Rice remains inactive, however, but Percy Harvin will play. Minnesota 24-14. (Edit: LOSS, Chicago, 27-13)
New York Jets favored 3 at Cleveland: Can the McCoy-Hillis battery keep shocking teams? Consecutive wins over New Orleans and New England aren’t a mirage, but the Browns’ offense faces its toughest opponent yet in the aggressive Jets. Rex Ryan can blitz at will (Revis doesn’t need one healthy hamstring to shut down Mohamed Massaquoi), and Colt McCoy won’t have a comfortable pocket all day. Jets in an easy one, 24-3. (Edit: WIN, Jets in OT, 26-20).
@Tampa Bay favored 7 over Carolina: Since when has Tampa Bay ever been favored by 7? The Panthers, 1-7, have scored the fewest points in the NFL by 42 – absolutely anemic. Jimmy Clausen makes his fourth NFL start – he’s thrown 1 TD in six games. With DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Tyrell Sutton all on the shelf, Mike Goodson will start at tailback by default. Expect Josh Freeman, LaGarrette Blount, and Mike Williams to look very, very good today. 23-10, Tampa Bay. (Edit: WIN, Tampa 31-16).
Kansas City favored 1 @Denver: The Broncos are second worst in the NFL against the run, and the Chiefs run more than any team in the NFL (290 attempts). That advantage alone should be enough for the Chiefs, but Brandon Flowers and Eric Berry won’t let Kyle Orton carve them up, either. KC 24-20. (Edit: LOSS, Denver 49-29).
@San Francisco favored 5.5 over St. Louis: The Rams are tied atop the NFL’s worst division, the NFC West, at 4-4. Today, they square off against the preseason division favorites who find themselves at 2-6. The Niners’ home victory over Denver was a solid rebound from the Carolina loss, but Troy Smith will be pressured all afternoon long by an underrated Rams’ front seven. San Francisco will continue to underachieve. St. Louis, 23-21. (Edit: WIN, San Francisco 23-20 – STL wins vs. spread).
@Arizona favored 3 over Seattle: Neither team is very good, so don’t watch this game. Although 3-5 and 4-4 don’t look like poor records, they’re bloated because of the division’s futility. A Cardinal secondary with DRC, Adrian Wilson, and Kerry Rhodes shouldn’t be this dreadful, but Seattle’s offensive line – now without high first-rounder Russell Okung – will crumble from the slightest pressure. A tie here would be fitting. Seattle, 21-16. (Edit: WIN, Seattle 36-18).
New York Giants favored 13.5 @Dallas: Wow, what a line here. Over/under on quarters that Kitna stays healthy? Probably one. Former Agee Stephen McGee may see the field before long, and Jason Garrett’s debut has head coach won’t be memorable. Today may be Mike Jenkins’ final chance as a starter – he’s been the victim of several big-gainers this year. While Wade enjoys his Sweet Find Paula’s Donuts coupons, please start Mario Manningham in fantasy. Giants, 34-13. (Edit: LOSS, Dallas 33-20).
@Pittsburgh favored 4.5 over New England: A friend just texted me, asking if it was worth starting Tom Brady tonight in fantasy. Heinz Field isn’t an ideal venue to play at after losing to Cleveland, but Belichick’s boys won’t have much of a choice. The Roethlisberger-Wallace connection will be huge again, and NE’s banged-up offensive line must negate a relentless Steeler pass rush. Steelers, 24-23, NE wins vs. spread. (Edit: New England, 39-26 – WIN).
Philadelphia favored 3.5 @Washington: On Monday night, the Redskins will return after 15 days away from game action. Donovan McNabb hasn’t been able to hide from scrutiny over the last fortnight, whether it’s been questions about his knowledge of the playbook to a possible long-term contract. Regardless, there’s still not enough talent surrounding McNabb for the ‘Skins to win. Washington beat Philly in their first meeting, 17-12, when Michael Vick hurt his chest early on and Kolb played the majority of the game. Philly, 24-16. (Edit: Philly, 59-28 – WIN.)
Final tally – 8 wins, 5 losses.
